TL;DR
Tom Wojcik’s report, with figures current to Sept. 26, 2026, follows the effects of the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz closure from oil markets to fuel supplies, fertiliser and European harvests. The source describes a fragile ceasefire that broke down, volatile oil prices and risks to food and winter heating; some longer-term effects remain forecasts rather than confirmed outcomes.
Polish writer Tom Wojcik says the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz are transmitting pressure across oil, food and energy markets, with consequences reaching Europe’s fuel supplies and winter heating. His report, based on figures through Sept. 26, 2026, links the disruption to higher oil prices, fertiliser risks and a poor potato harvest expected across parts of Europe.
Wojcik’s account says U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February, and that Iran has kept Hormuz closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. Tanker traffic through the strait has fallen by more than 90 percent. The International Energy Agency describes the disruption as the largest oil-supply disruption the market has experienced.
A ceasefire briefly pulled oil prices back to pre-war levels in early summer, but it did not hold. Brent crude was near $97 a barrel in early September, up 19 percent in a month, reached about $105 by mid-month and touched $108 on Sept. 24, according to the report. Iran submitted a written proposal to Washington on Sept. 22 calling for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days and a phased reopening of Hormuz. Washington rejected it, Wojcik writes.
The effects are also showing up in fuel distribution and shipping costs. In France, official figures cited by Wojcik showed 15 percent of stations out of petrol or diesel on Sept. 20, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The French government ruled out a national shortage. Around nine in ten of the affected stations were TotalEnergies locations, where a petrol price cap drew customers faster than supplies could be replenished, according to the report.
Fuel and Food Face Linked Shocks
The report’s central point is that disruptions in one transport chokepoint can affect several essential systems at once. Hormuz normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, according to the source. The Food and Agriculture Organization warns that scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. Those are projected effects; the full harvest impact has not yet been measured.
Higher fuel costs also matter because diesel powers transport and farming, while oil prices influence the cost of producing and shipping food. The World Food Programme estimate cited by Wojcik says sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity. This is a forecast, not a count of people already affected by the current disruption.
For Europe, the report connects global market exposure with local vulnerabilities: Poland relies on coal and imported gas for heating, while farmers and consumers are confronting volatile crop yields and prices. The combination makes the timing of winter energy supplies and the next harvest important beyond the oil market itself.
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From Gulf Shipping to European Farms
Wojcik frames the crisis from Poland, which borders Ukraine and depends in part on imported gas. He argues that countries have often relied on cheaper suppliers rather than maintaining larger stockpiles or other buffers. That is his interpretation of the vulnerabilities exposed by this year’s disruptions.
The report also describes pressure on Russian refining. Ukrainian drones have hit Russian refineries at least 70 times this year, roughly once every four days in the IEA count cited by Wojcik. Russia’s refining output has fallen to a two-decade low, and Moscow has restricted fuel exports. U.S. diesel passed $6 a gallon on Sept. 10, according to the source.
European agriculture entered the season after a glut: Poland harvested about 7 million tonnes of potatoes in 2025, 18 percent more than the year before. Growers in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany then planted 14 percent less, before heatwaves and drought damaged crops. Their growers’ organisation expects a harvest down 25 percent, one of the smallest in a decade, Wojcik reports.
“The government rules out a shortage.”
— French government, as cited by Tom Wojcik
Ceasefire and Harvest Risks Remain
The conflict’s next phase is unclear. Wojcik says Washington rejected Iran’s Sept. 22 proposal, but the report does not establish whether negotiations will resume or when shipping through Hormuz might recover. A separate report cited by Wojcik said the U.S. president expected bombing to resume after November’s midterm elections; that remains an attributed report, not a confirmed timetable.
The report also does not establish the eventual scale of food shortages or winter heating impacts. The FAO’s yield warning and the WFP’s food-insecurity estimate describe risks, while the European potato harvest figure is an expectation from a growers’ organisation. Market prices and supply conditions may change if shipping routes reopen or the conflict escalates.
Watch Shipping and Harvest Data
The next indicators are whether Hormuz reopens, whether a ceasefire takes hold and whether tanker traffic returns. Oil prices and shipping rates will show how markets respond, though Wojcik notes that the tanker fund’s manager expects rates to fall if the strait reopens.
Over the coming months, harvest reports and fertiliser availability will clarify how much of the projected agricultural damage becomes real. European fuel and gas inventories will also shape the outlook for winter heating. The report provides figures through Sept. 26 but does not give a specific date for when those outcomes will be known.
Key Questions
What is the main development in the report?
It traces how the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure are affecting oil shipping and creating risks for fuel, fertiliser, harvests and European energy supplies.
How much has tanker traffic through Hormuz fallen?
The report says traffic has fallen by more than 90 percent since Iran closed the strait in March.
Is France officially experiencing a fuel shortage?
No national shortage was declared by the French government, according to the report. Official figures showed 15 percent of stations were out of petrol or diesel on Sept. 20, with many affected stations linked to demand at TotalEnergies locations with capped prices.
Are food shortages already confirmed?
The report describes risks and forecasts, including an FAO warning that fertiliser scarcity could affect yields through late 2026 and 2027. It does not confirm the eventual scale of food shortages.
Source: hn
